China

China's "Floating Population"

I first learned of this phenomenon about 10 years ago on my first trip to China.  Imagine the population of Russia walking around China looking for work.  From Yao Lu, a sociologist at Columbia:

The conventional term for internal migrants in China is “floating population,” a phrase that describes unprecedented migrant flows, moving from inland villages in the underdeveloped central and western regions to China’s costal cities, searching for work. According to recent estimates, the total number of migrant workers is more than 150 million, perhaps the largest movement of labor in human history. The floating population is a major force fueling the country’s rapid economic growth. Having made China one of the largest export economies in the world, migrant workers have also become visible to those outside China.

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Will The Chinese Really Stop Buying Treasuries?

Don't believe the hype.

It's certainly possible that at some point the Chinese could stop buying U.S. debt and, therefore, drive up interest rates.  But every time I ask the question of true experts in the field (as opposed to inside-the-Beltway types who are interested in scoring political points), I get an answer that makes far more sense and is based on facts rather than fear-mongering.

Chuck Lieberman, who as I've said before is one of the economists whose words I always consider carefully, has an easy-to-read take on this issue that is worth a few minutes of your time.

If you don't have time to read the whole thing, here's the money quote:

Repeat After Me: We Are Responsible for Our Own Mistakes

Mark Landler makes a number of good points in his New York Times article, "Chinese Helped Inflate American Bubble," but he leaves out the most important one. The U.S. government, on behalf of U.S. citizens, decided to run budget deficits during a fiscal expansion. U.S. consumers decided to use their lower tax burden during the last eight years to spend rather than save. No one else can be held responsible for those decisions.

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