First 100 Days: Obama Is A Rock Star; Republicans Aren't Even An Opening Act

I'm not one of those people who thinks "The First 100 Days" is that important.  It's the political version of the first pitch on opening day: the fact that it is or isn't a strike is reported but that doesn't really signify much of anything. So with that proviso in mind....

If you like numbers, my colleague at Qorvis, Ron Faucheux, who runs our Clarus Research Group, put together this very nice...and short...summary:

Obama ratings hold steady

Throughout his first 100 days in the White House, President Obama’s popularity has held fairly steady — winning solidly good, but not super high, marks. Based on the Clarus polling averages, we find that his range has been 7 points, between 58 percent and 65 percent.  Obama is now polling nearly where he started (63 percent versus 64 percent).

Obama has survived a number of controversies, battles and mishaps each of which, many predicted at the time, would negatively impact his public rating. That has hardly been the case, at least so far.

While there has been increased partisan polarization toward Obama since he first took office, he continues to do well overall. The shrunken Republican voter base is helping him, of course.

Essentially, most voters either like what they see in Obama or are wiling to give him a chance even if they have doubts. The public's perception of his performance in office over the months ahead will determine how well or how long this situation holds up.

In most polls, Obama is doing better personally than are his policies. Nonetheless, his major policies gain solid voter majorities. The CBS poll shows Obama rating over 50 percent on every major issue: Iraq (63 percent), the economy (61 percent), foreign policy (59 percent), and terrorism (55 percent).

At 63 percent approval, Obama is doing better at this point than Bill Clinton (49 percent) or George W. Bush (56 percent) were doing at comparable times. Obama, however, falls short of Dwight Eisenhower, who was polling 73 percent at this point, and JFK, who was polling 83 percent.

Obama is now polling within one percent of where Jimmy Carter was at this point (63 percent versus 64 percent). Of course, Carter’s popularity didn’t hold up; he went down to defeat in his bid for re-election.

Completing his 100th day, Obama is doing a little better than G.H.W. Bush (61 percent) and Richard Nixon (60 percent) were doing as they reached the same milestone. Bush 41 was defeated for re-election and Nixon won a second term in a landslide.

In terms of the average ratings earned throughout their first 100 days -- which is a better way to assess the opening months of each of the following elected Presidents -- here is a comparison (Gallup numbers):

PRESIDENT          AVERAGE RATING FIRST 100 DAYS
Obama                              63%
Bush 43                             58
Clinton                              55
Bush 41                             57
Reagan                              60
Carter                                69
Nixon                                62
Kennedy                            74
Eisenhower                        71

And all of this has happened while Obama recommended very major changes in a number of areas.  These are the type of changes that typically have been hard for presidents to propose, so the fact that Obama's numbers have remained this high while doing this is impressive.

But the real story of the first 100 days isn't Obama's numbers.  The far better way to understand what's happened over Obama's first three-plus months in office is yesterday's decision by Senator Arlen Specter to become a Democrat: The reports are that the decision was sealed when Obama offered to campaign for him.

This is far more significant than it may seem at first glance.  Few, if any, Republicans running for election or reelection in 2008 wanted George Bush's endorsement.  But more than a year and a half before the voting begins in 2010, Specter asked for and received Obama's assurance not only that he would endorse him, but also that he would stand by him on the campaign trail.

He clearly expects Obama to be a major force for quite some time to come.  He also is showing confidence that the Obama policies will improve the economy.  If he didn't, there's no way Specter would hitch his political future to Obama's star.

In other words, in the first 100 days, Barack Obama has firmly and definitely become a political rock star.

The first 100 days have produced some legislative victories for the White House (the stimulus bill and the 2010 budget resolution conference report that will be approved by the House and Senate today, for example).  But Obama's real accomplishment at the start of his presidency is that he has set himself up for further wins by building and image and momentum with which others want to be associated.  He clearly has public support and, at least among Democrats, has shown an ability to get Congress to work with him.

Obama's abiity to work with his own party in the first 100 days is a very significant achievement.  I worked on Capital Hill when Jimmy Carter was in the White House and watched in amazement as he was unable to stop Democrats from routinely torpedoeing his initiatives.  It quckly got to the point where Carter's people weren't welcome in some Democratic Hill offices and Tip O'Nell was referring to Chief of Staff Hamilton Jordan as "Hannibal Jerkin."

There has been no such drama with and rejection of Obama's staff.  To the contrary, the White House's input and support is already being sought routinely.

There have been some very notable Obama administration problems in the first 100 days.  To my mind, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's very poorly handled first announcement of his plan was the worst...and the one that caused the most damage.

But even if you add up all of what you consider to be all of the White House's missteps, mistakes, and miscues, it's impossible not to come to the conclusion that they don't compare to what Republicans have done.  In fact, it's hard not to conclude that the first 100 days of the Obama administration have been a disaster for the GOP.  Why?  Here's my top 10 list:

1. Arlen Specter
2. The loss of the special election in New York
3. Norm Coleman vs. Al Franken
4. The continuing problems with Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele
5. No clear leader
6. Rush Limbaugh
7. The very public disputes between House Minority Leader John Boehner and Minority Whip Eric Cantor
8. An absolute failure to find a voice or message that resonates with voters on virtually every issue
9. Congressional Republican disapproval ratings generally being 60 percent or higher
10. Fewer voters identifying themselves as Republicans

If you not sure who has had better first 100 days, ask yourself this question: Given what's happened so far, would you rather be Barack Obama or the Republican Party in the second 100 days?