If it wasnt already, the 159,000 drop in jobs reported this morning should put the Paulson plan over the top in the House of Representatives later today. This is the apparent direct connection to main street that's been missing so far. Today's report provides the political cover any Republican or Democrat needs to vote for this bill.
(Question: Does anyone doubt that the vote was intentionally scheduled to occur after the jobs report?)
So what will happen next?
1. The Paulson plan will not end the economic woes of the past few weeks. Anyone who thinks the situation will immediately turn around when the bill passes is going to be suprised and disappointed. I suspect that markets have already assumed it will be enacted and have moved on. Yesteday's 349 point drop in the Dow may have been a case of this version of "buy on the rumor; sell on the fact."
2. One of the unspoken costs for the financial world of the Paulson plan will be dramaticlaly increased congressional oversight next year. This will likely take two forms:
First, a Sarbanes-Oxley-like bill for financial services now should be considered virtually inevitable next year.
Second, every House and Senate commitee that can conceivably insist that they have jurisdiction over some aspect of the financial services world will do so next year. In addition to House Financial Services and Senate Banking, this could include:
- The House and Senate Budget Committees
- The House Energy and Commerce Committee
- The Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee
- The House and Senate Small Business Committees
- The Joint Economic Committee
- The House Ways and Means Committee
- The Senate Finance Committee
- The House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform
- The House and Senate Judiciary Committee, and
- The House and Senate Appropriations Committees
Financial company CEOs and financial trade association CEOs will be testifying weekly and their actions will be under the congressional microscope for quite some time.

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