Democracy In America, 2008 Edition, Part 1

I am flattering myself by using the headline above and comparing what I've done the past few months to the travels and writings of Alexis de Tocqueville in the early 19th century. 

Please forgive me for this conceit.  But the truth is that I've actually visited more states -- 28 so far -- than existed when de Tocqueville traveled. 

I've been traveling on business and have talked to around two hundred financial and investor groups about the 2008 election and what it could mean for Wall Street. The people I've spoken with have been high income (in some cases very high), highly educated, and far more Republican than what you're likely to find with a truly representative sample of Americans.

But in spite of the apparent homogenity of the groups, what I've heard and discovered so far has been truly surprising.

1.  The differences from state to state are astounding.  Income and education simply are not the great equalizers I assumed they would be.  For example, the groups I've spoken to in Texas and Oregon have asked many of the same questions and been interested in the same substantive data, but they process the information and talk about what should be done about it in completely different ways.

2.  Because of this, I have gained a new respect for what Congress does.  In fact, given the often dramatic differences between what and how the relatively similar groups in different states seem to think, and considering the additional differences that surely exist between the groups I've talked to and the others segments of the population that have not participated in these meetings, I'm actually impressed that Congress is able to do anything on any issue.

3.  I've also gained new appreciation for how difficult it is to be a federal elected official.  Your consitutents don't often agree among themselves and on most issues almost certainly don't agree with people in other parts of the country.  They also have little tolerance for compromise and, at least from what I've seen during my travels, are seldom willing to admit that someone in another income class, state, region, or political party could possibly be right or that their position and needs are worth considering.

4.  The magnitude of the federal deficit and government borowing is a shock to most people.  They are very disturbed by it but don't think that the spending they like or benefit from should be cut or their taxes should be raised to deal with it.

5.  Magic, painless solutions is what many people continue to believe is all that's needed to deal with the federal budget.  The ones I've heard most often repeated are eliminating earmarks; cutting waste, fraud, and abuse; and reducing foreign aid.

6.  Except for a very few, there seems to be little belief that tax cuts always pay for themselves.  But...almost everyone would like to believe it.

7.  There is a definite expectation that ending activities in Iraq and Afghanistan will create a peace dividend that will be large enough to pay for everything everyone wants to do. There has been silence when I have explained that the reality may be quite different.

8.  The anger with George W. Bush and the Republican Party is real.  This is true for republicans and well as Democrats.

9.  The Obama and McCain campaigns are not yet hitting on all cylinders.

10. Whoever he is, there seems to be real concern about the ability of the next president to deal what's ahead.

I'll have additional reports as my travels will continue over the next three months.

Will the national debt be repaid?

I'm surprised you didn't ask the obvious question - are you going to repay the share of national debt you and the members of your family have been committed by Congress to service? If you had asked that, I think you would have gotten mostly negative responses from each state you visited.

The people in the hinterlands have refused to make it too clear, and lord knows the politicians and budget wonks in Washington are slow to understand, but the national debt is never going to be honored. No matter how much debt the incompetents inside the beltway rack up, the folks outside the beltway are mostly going to take a pass if and when it comes time to pay back their share, reasoning 'it isn't my debt, it is owed the US government. Let it repay its own debt.'

Let's just be glad of two things. At least for now, we can always create more debt to pay back whatever debt is about to come due. The second is that the rest of the world, who continue to float 'it' and the game, have yet to understand what is about to happen.