David Broder has an interesting but flawed analysis in today's Washington Post about John McCain's choice for vice president.
Broder's column hangs its hat on what he says is McCain's lack of credibility on the economy and comes to the conclusion that he needs to pick a running mate who can make up for that deficiency. Broder mentions New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, former Ohio Congressman Rob Portman, and Mitt Romney as good choices.
While there's no doubt that McCain's economic credentials are not perceived to be as strong as Barack Obama's, his more immediate need in a vice presidential candidate is electoral votes and it's not clear whether any of the names Broder mentioned will help him do that. Bloomberg might, but probably won't, put New York in play and could help McCain in Florida. Jindal might not help beyond Louisiana and could actually hurt elsewhere. As Broder notes, Portman could help in the battleground state of Ohio but his being a former member of the Bush administration's economic team (special trade rep and OMB director) could be a disaster overall. Romney won the Michigan Republican primary and his father was governor there so he supposedly could help in that battleground state, but it's not clear whether he will play well anywhere else other than Utah. If McCain can't win Utah on his own, no vice presidential candidate will help him enough to make a difference.
McCain's need to focus on electoral votes is clear when you look at this map from one of the best political blogs around --Real Clear Politics -- which shows Obama leading in states with 255 electoral votes, just 15 away from the 270 needed to get elected. McCain is ahead in states with 163:
It's obviously important to state immediately that neither candidate has any electoral votes yet and the election is still a long three and a half months away. A great deal can and will change between now and then.
But the biggest change will be the selection by both candidates of their vice presidential running mates. That makes the Real Clear Politics map at least as important to the McCain campaign as the economy will be when McCain makes his decision.
Assuming RCP's numbers are correct, McCain will have to win virtually every toss up state on the map to get elected and that argues for someone with more than just one-issue appeal. Instead, McCain needs a vice presidential candidate who at a minimum will energize the Republican base in all states and extend interest in the GOP ticket to those who either might be tempted to vote Democratic for some reason or more likely won't vote at all.
That's probably someone beyond the names that Broder and others have mentioned so far. Romney wasn't strong enough to get the party faithful to vote for him in the primaries. Jindal is largely unknown. No matter what his other credentials might be, Portman will always be a member of the Bush administration with its 28 percent overall approval rating. Bloomberg would definitely be an outside-the-box choice, but it's not at all clear whether a former Democrat who abandoned the Republican Party to become an independent will play well with the GOP faithful.
The one choice that would immediately change the race -- California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger -- isn't a natural-born American citizen and so can't run.
This argues for McCain to select someone who would be a much bolder and far less expected choice but will immediately change the overall dynamics by appealing to a very wide group in a large number of states.
For all his flaws, Newt Gingrich immediately comes to mind.
In spite of his last name, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, who most people wrote off months ago because of his last name, might also be someone who should be considered.
A complete political outsider who has substantial accomplishments in another field such as General David Petraeus might also make sense.
Romney for VP?? Do you
Romney for VP?? Do you remember the attack ads from the primarys that Romney put out against McCain?? Do you remember the video of Romney saying McCain is dishonest? It would be a gift to the DNC to make Romney McCains VP. You can go to
http://www.HotPres.com
to see all the attack ads that Romney put out against McCain, You can also see the video of Romney calling McCain dishonest. Romney would be a big mistake. I would rather have t boon pickin then romney. lol. Least he has a plan.
http://www.tboonepickin.com
I suggest you go look at the attack ads Romney put out against mccain at the above site. Before you make up your mind about Romney being a great VP.
Romney for VP?? Do you
Romney for VP?? Do you remember the attack ads from the primarys that Romney put out against McCain?? Do you remember the video of Romney saying McCain is dishonest? It would be a gift to the DNC to make Romney McCains VP. You can go to
http://www.HotPres.com
to see all the attack ads that Romney put out against McCain, You can also see the video of Romney calling McCain dishonest. Romney would be a big mistake. I would rather have t boon pickin then romney. lol. Least he has a plan.
http://www.tboonepickans.com
I suggest you go look at the attack ads Romney put out against mccain at the above site. Before you make up your mind about Romney being a great VP.
What can John McCain do to
What can John McCain do to fire up his backers?
a. Go on a national tour singing "Bomb Bomb Bomb, Bomb Bomb Iran."
b. Crib opening of "Ellen"—begin campaign events by dancing down the aisle.
c. Drop the N-bomb. At this point, what could it hurt?
http://www.236.com/news/2008/07/18/john_mccains_old_white_angry_a_7804.php
His national campaign chair (the one that didn't resign)
Tim Pawlenty
He's on the short list.
Go for It!
Yeah, Pawlenty will MOBILIZE THE BASE! If they can figure out who he is.
How about Mitch Daniels?
Of General Petraeus, there is only one possible response: "Bring It On!"
It's about making sure the base comes out to vote
If you've talked to some of the right wing evangelicals you'd know that many are considering staying home (not voting) this time.
While I wouldn't rule out
While I wouldn't rule out the McCain campaign throwing a hail mary, given the current odds on victory via a relatively safe choice, I'd be surprised if he picked Petraeus. I think it would be a poor choice politically, because I think a lot of people would have the same reaction I'd have (never a safe thing to assume, I realize), which is: Oh no, that's the Peter Principle gone wild! Here's the one guy in the whole Iraq mess who seemed to be competent as a strategist and military leader, and you (McCain) want to yank him out of the military while we're still struggling to "win" two wars and put him in a political role for which he's not qualified, with the potential to be president, for which he's not qualified?? Gee, thanks a pantload.
As for Gingrich, while he's a great public speaker and would be great for turning out the base, he's a big risk because of the polarization he'd bring. McCain could lose a lot of potential moderate/centrist/independent voters by choosing Gingrich. (Oh, and there's also Gingrich's infidelities and divorces, with which the media, including late night comics, would have a field day, given the hypocrisy of such behavior from a self-righteous "family values" guy).
Choosing Romney would have drawbacks, to be certain -- video of Romney bashing McCain during the primaries, the (valid) opportunistic flip-flopper charge, Mormonism -- but he would bring a lot of pluses: Excellent speaker in all formats (even if somewhat robotic in formal speeches), perceived strength on economic issues, executive experience in both government and the private sector (for-profit and not-for-profit), help with Michigan, and, if it's still possible that McCain will opt out of public funding, Romney could raise a lot of cash with Mormons and Wall Street, plus throw in mega-gobs of his own cash (I'm assuming a VP candidate can do so).
Jindal, for all his impressive qualifications for his age, seems too darn young. He's a possibility, but I consider Romney more likely.
Bloomberg would really hurt turnout among social conservatives. Also, Bloomberg seems like a guy with too much integrity to push big tax cuts along with making the Bush tax cuts permanent and "fixing" the AMT, let alone to advocate such a policy AND claim that it's likely the budget will be balanced in four years.
I'm not familiar enough with Pawlenty or Portman to have a sense of their likelihood.
Bottom line: Can't rule anything out, given the need McCain may see to take a big risk, but Romney seems to be the smartest pick politically, and although I'm certainly not going to say that I have much faith in the strategic (or tactical) political judgment of McCain and his campaign team, I think there's a good chance that they'll see that Romney is the smartest choice and pick Flip...er, I mean Mitt.
Above comment was mine
Above comment was mine (forgot to put name).
vp
if mccain does not make it to live in his 4 years in office....will his vp actually be able to run the country?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I would have to guess that
I would have to guess that the McCain will choose Sarah Palin of Alaska for his running mate. She is the logical choice and will nicely round out his ticket.
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