Nate Silver: Can't Enact A Debt Ceiling Increase Without Democratic Votes
I first wrote about this back in May, but Nate Silver today has a terrific analysis in his Five Thirty Eight blog at the New York Times of why House Democrats will have far more influence in the outcome of the debt ceiling fight than seems obvious at first glance. In fact, as Nate confirms, any deal will need support not just from House Democrats in general but rather from the progressive wing of House Democrats and that's going to make the big changes in Medicare and Social Security the White House supposedly put on the table yesterday very unlikely. That, in turn, makes the big deal itself far less likely to emerge from the talks.
What complicates this even further is that anything that might be acceptable to what could be a bare majority in the House is likely to be unacceptable to a majority in the Senate.