I hate to say I told you so, but I'm starting to pick up rumblings from both Treasury and Wall Street that the fiscal 2009 deficit could end up being lower, and maybe even substantially lower, than was projected when the White House released its budget earlier in the year.

The word is that the deficit, projected at about $1.8 trillion in May, could come in at around $1.6 trillion instead.  That would still be an all-time high compared to the $459 billion record set in 2008, but it would be way below the initial estimate.

If this is true, it's not clear whether it will be reflected in the mid-session budget review the White House amy release next week.  The administration could decide to wait until the fiscal year ends in about six weeks to show the lower deficit.

My guess, and it's only a guess, is that at least some of the good news will be in the mid-session review and the White House will add it to the recent series of better-than-expected economic reports as a sign that things are improving.

Also if this is true, the administration's messaging for next year will have to change somewhat because the size of the expected drop in the deficit from 2009 to 2010 won't appear to be as great.

No doubt this is a problem the White House would love to have.