President-Elect Obama will hold a press conference someday soon to outline his priorities for the first 100 days of his administration. There's little doubt that the economy will take precedence over all else. A change in war strategy will be an early priority. The government is only funded through midnight, March 6, so much effort will be expended early next year on finishing the unfinished business President Bush left us. It will be May or June before any time opens up to embark on new agenda items.
It's always tempting to take on the really big issues like health care reform or energy independence early on, but those will only become law if President Obama takes very good care to build the political capital necessary to overcome powerful opposition. President Clinton barged ahead with health care reform soon after taking office in 1993, and he suffered the loss of the House Democratic majority the following year over that failed attempt and didn't regain it during his remaining six years in office. That was quite a price to pay.
Health care reform will affect every American and how we spend 16% of GDP. Very powerful interests disagree about how to go about it. Pharmaceutical companies, hospitals, nursing homes, other health care providers, insurers, employers, unions, AARP, and consumers are going to fight a titanic battle that, in my opinion, won't be decided in a few months. It will take more like a few years. It may have to be done in stages. It will have to be implemented gradually. You don't just start over from scratch on something this massive. You have to transition very carefully, compensating most losers and amassing politcal support from prospective winners.
Energy independence has been a front and center political goal ever since it was first called for by President Nixon in 1973. Since then we have pursued one failed policy after another while becoming more dependent upon foreign oil, not less. Hybrids are selling well now, but not fast enough to replace a woefully inefficient auto fleet. Falling energy prices will diminish our enthusiasm for energy efficiency just as it has too many times before.
I want these issues addressed as much as anyone, but I've seen them fumbled too many times before to wish a quick hail Mary play on President Obama. Better to stick to the ground game and make slow steady progress toward the goal.
