Stan asks an excellent question:
If consumers are willing to pay higher prices for gasoline, why should we think that energy companies are going to do anything but charge those higher prices?
I'm not one who blames oil companies for high prices. I'm more impressed by how quiet the media gets when oil prices are low. In the U.S., we act as if God decreed low energy prices. We act as if the laws of supply and demand don't apply to us.
You don't have to spend much time driving in Europe to see the difference that high gasoline taxes make. People drive smaller cars, mostly diesel fueled, and public transportation is first class. People also live very close to their jobs and to all the services they need. They actually walk to market. What a concept? It keeps you slim too! Try walking to most U.S. stores, and you're very likely to end up as a pedestrian fatality.
Oil is undoubtedly a private good, but it's one that takes a lot of investment and a long time to bring to market. As we economists like to say, oil supply is quite inelastic in the short-run and inelastic in the long-run too. Demand for oil is quite inelastic in the short-run and inelastic in the long-run too. Therefore, price volatility is to be expected. However, despite repeated experience to the contrary, Americans never seem to get used to oil price volatility. Neither does our government.
Our federal and state governments subsidize gasoline, tax gasoline, restrict the refining of gasoline, impose stringent air pollution requirements on the refining and use of gasoline, and fail completely to buffer the price volatility of gasoline.
An economist facing such a situation would generally recommend a variable tax to even out such price volatility and to establish a rational long-run incentive to increase oil supply, to increase conservation of its use, and to create alternatives. We simply don't do that. What more proof do we need than highways full of SUV's and an army of unemployed auto workers?
We did establish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in 1975, but we restricted it's primary mission to "national security" and not to "economic security." Furthermore, it stores crude oil, not gasoline, so it's of little short run use.
Our refineries are operating at peak capacity, and there's no spare capacity to be had because we don't like foul smelling air near any of us.
What to do??? As my kids say, "DAAAAA!!!" Cut back on the use of gasoline, establish a variable tax to stabilize its long-run price, and develop alternative fuels. We have the know-how; we have the ability; we just lack the will.










refinery capacity
The issue isn't refinery capacity - it's the capacity to produce oil at a rate sufficient to meet demand at a price acceptable to US consumers and policy makers. If the world's oil producer no longer possess that capacity or possess it but no longer desire to exercise it, then the question of refinery capacity seems less urgent.
Add "spend more on public transportation infrastructure than on black top" to your prescription and I agree with you.
Energy Policy Carter V Reagan
Between 1978 and 1983 US oil demand dropped by over 20%. After 1983, Jimmy Carter energy policy was replaced by Reagan policy:
http://www.flintexpats.com/2008/06/energy-deja-vu.html
The Great Recession
Between 1978 and 1983 there were two recessions. The last one being the most serious since the Great Depression. That probably had something to do with reduced demand for a lot of things.
Reagan also convinced the King of Saudi Arabia to flood the world with oil to deny revenues to the Soviet Union (which was occupying Afghanistan at the time). It was part of his Cold War plan to defeat the Soviets.
Actually, the drop in oil
Actually, the drop in oil demand was permanent and only slowly rose over the next 17 years. It was 2000 before US oil demand returned to 1978 levels. In 1978, most cars got 10-12 mpg. By 1983 it was over 20 mpg.
The US oil demand is here:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec5_20.pdf
(Because refined oil products have limited shelf life, refinery input closely tracks demand).
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