Growing Disparities in Life Expectancy

The Congressional Budget Office is to be commended for calling attention to a disturbing trend in life expectancy disparities between the rich and the poor that could have strong budgetary effects for Social Security and Medicare.

Here is the summary from CBO's analysis.

Congressional Budget Office 4/17/08

Growing Disparities in Life Expectancy

Summary

In a continuation of long-term trends, life expectancy
has been steadily increasing in the United States for
the past several decades. Accompanying the recent
increases, however, is a growing disparity in life expectancy
between individuals with high and low income
and between those with more and less education. The
difference in life expectancy across socioeconomic
groups is significantly larger now than in 1980 or
1990. A similar trend is evident in Great Britain but
not in Canada, where the gap in life expectancy
between high- and low-income individuals has
declined.

Increasing longevity, by itself, has clear implications
for Social Security and Medicare expenditures. As
beneficiaries live longer, they will receive benefits for a
longer period, putting additional pressure on the programs'
finances.

The implications of a continued widening of the gap
in life expectancy by socioeconomic status are clear for
Social Security but less so for Medicare. For Social
Security, a widening gap would worsen the long-term
shortfall in financing and reduce the program's progressivity-
the extent to which it redistributes resources from high-income to low-income beneficiaries on a lifetime basis. For Medicare, it is not clear whether a widening gap would exacerbate the cost
increases that will result from increasing longevity.
How the share of Medicare spending on low-income
individuals would change depends on how the percentage
change in life expectancy at age 65 compares
for the various groups of beneficiaries.

Longevity gap probably does not matter

This is bad news for the Ponzi scheme known as Social Security, because the richest elderly, who get the biggest monthly payments, will have longer lifespans. But, that is counterbalanced on the Medicaid side where the poorest elderly, who need Medicaid the most, will have shorter lifespans.

From a practical standpoint, I cannot see how the widening gap in longevity matters much for these federal entitlement programs. Both are out-of-control financially and will collapse unless the federal government siphons lots more money from workers.

I believe we should phase out these programs to shrink the size and power of government and to avoid financial catastrophe in the future.

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