StanCollender'sCapitalGainsandGames Washington, Wall Street and Everything in Between



Spinning the Chrysler Bankruptcy

30 Apr 2009
Posted by Andrew Samwick

Why is Chrysler now frequently referred to as "storied?"  Why is this bankruptcy any more "surgical" than any other bankruptcy with this much advanced negotiation?  Let's get to the heart of the government's involvement -- the non-employee creditors, via The New York Times (the key paragraph is in bold):

Last-minute efforts by the Treasury Department to win over resistant Chrysler debtholders failed Wednesday night, and the administration’s frustration was evident in President Obama’s remarks.

But a group of Chrysler’s secured lenders asserted that the administration was skirting bankruptcy laws by forcing them to take a larger loss on their debt than other stakeholders in the company. They said their proposals to restructure Chrysler had been ignored by the government.

“The fact is, in this process and in its earnest effort to ensure the survival of Chrysler and the well-being of the company’s employees, the government has risked overturning the rule of law and practices that have governed our world-leading bankruptcy code for decades,” the group, which calls itself the Committee of Non-TARP Lenders, said in a statement.

Members of the committee include units of Oppenheimer Funds, Perella Weinberg Partners’ Xerion Capital Fund and Stairway Capital Management. The funds emphasized that their investors were major pension funds, teachers’ unions and school endowments.

The lenders said they have been forced to negotiate through a group of big banks that have accepted government bailout money and are reticent to push back against the government’s proposal. They are particularly upset that the United Auto Workers will receive more for their debt even though the secured lenders should legally be paid before the union.

Many of the holdout lenders, primarily distressed-debt hedge funds who bought portions of Chrysler’s $6.9 billion of bank debt at a discount, will probably argue that they have the first claim to the carmaker’s assets that were pledged for those loans, according to people briefed on the matter.

They argue that they would see greater recovery in a liquidation of the car giant, which they contend would yield about 65 cents on the dollar. The most recent plan proposed Wednesday by the Treasury Department and Chrysler’s four main bank lenders — JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs — would have given the creditors about 33 cents on the dollar.

The four big banks own 70 percent of Chrysler’s secured debt.

I have spent most of my time railing against bailout in lieu of bankruptcy -- I do not think that the creditors (or other stakeholders) of a distressed firm should be compensated by the American taxpayer, except through established forms of social insurance like the FDIC or the unemployment insurance system for which they have paid premiums.  But nor do I think that it is appropriate for the executive branch of the government to try to steamroll them into accepting less than what they believe they could get from the established bankruptcy process in the hands of the judicial branch of government.

It is a bargaining situation

It is a bargaining situation where both sides are making statements designed to advance their bargaining position. I would advise taking all such comments with a grain of salt.

For example, the hedge funds are trying to give the impression they are only being offered $2.2 billion for debt worth $6.9 billion. But the $6.9 billion is the book value of the debt, not what the hedge funds paid for it. That is not public knowledge but it was probably under $2.0 billion.

Moreover, the estimate that they can get $0.65 on the dollar in a bankruptcy is highly exaggerate. Most of the equipment and plants they hold liens against is only of real value to Chrysler if it continues to build autos. Nobody else is going to pay much for a deserted Chrysler auto assembly plant.

It is negotiations. Obama offered them a deal.
They think they can do better in bankruptcy.
So that is where we go and we will wait to see if they actually do better.

But the claims that laws are being ignored and that they are being forced by government to act in certain way is political posturing that has little or no basis in fact.

Do not fall hook, line and sinker for what in effect is the secure lenders using the WSJ to write an editorial.


Anything Sub Rosa Going On?

Chrysler Files Bankruptcy - Assessing The Financial Carnage. Here is a very cogent legal analysis of where the Chrysler chips may fall. Looks like the Judge will have to determine if the deal has any sub rosa plots. http://pfx.me/KM


On the other hand

Just a few days ago Obama was telling us:

"Churchill understood, you start taking shortcuts, over time, that corrodes what's best in a people. It corrodes the character of a country."

I guess it's different when you shortcut the bankruptcy process? But does a Harvard Law graduate not know that those hedge funds and investment houses have fiduciary duties to fight for the best deal for their clients?


Pension Funds?

What in the world are they doing putting pension funds in such a high risk gamble?


Another angle

"Many of the Wall Street firms holding Chrysler bonds may also own credit default swaps that they bought to hedge their bets. These swaps, which are essentially like an insurance policy on the bonds should Chrysler default, were likely mostly issued by AIG.

AIG, thanks to the government bailout, has paid off bonds in the past at 100 cents on the dollar. Under the deal they would have had to accept with Chrysler, the bondholders would have received as little as 30 cents on the dollar, for example.

Why take 30 or 35 cents on the dollar from Chrysler when you can get the whole buck from the American taxpayer?"

http://www1.investorvillage.com/groups.asp?mb=13977&mn=158855&pt=msg&mid...


The four big banks own 70

The four big banks own 70 percent of Chrysler’s secured debt.....i heard another numbers(


Members of the committee

Members of the committee include units of Oppenheimer Funds, Perella Weinberg Partners’ Xerion Capital Fund and Stairway Capital Management. The funds emphasized that their investors were major pension funds, teachers’ unions and school endowments.

boediger


spinning chrysler

We've lost the big picture if we are surprised that the government wants a say in how Chrysler unfolds. To say it is not appropriate for the executive branch of the government to get involved and force them "into accepting less than what they believe they could get from the established bankruptcy process" is completely missing the point. The government IS involved, and it doesn't come free (and they were dragged into this; the Fed/Treasury did not initiate intervention). Everything is 2nd or 3rd or 4th best now until government rolls back its involvement.




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