CapitalGainsandGames Washington, Wall Street and Everything in Between



Repeat After Me: We Are Responsible for Our Own Mistakes

26 Dec 2008
Posted by Andrew Samwick

Andrew Samwick's picture

Mark Landler makes a number of good points in his New York Times article, "Chinese Helped Inflate American Bubble," but he leaves out the most important one. The U.S. government, on behalf of U.S. citizens, decided to run budget deficits during a fiscal expansion. U.S. consumers decided to use their lower tax burden during the last eight years to spend rather than save. No one else can be held responsible for those decisions.

The thrust of the article is that the willingness of the Chinese government to orient itself around exports, keeping its currency cheap (and thus the consumption of its citizens down), did enable us to make those decisions at a lower cost than we would have otherwise. The Chinese government was so desperate to hold Treasuries that it was willing to overpay for them. How did we take advantage of that willingness? We consumed rather than invested. We borrowed to buy houses, not infrastructure. Many things were possible -- we chose some of the least sensible things. The fault for that lies within our borders, not outside them.

update

Taxpayers, medium-to-small business, and people are responsible for their mistakes.

Systemic moral hazards gets some help from Uncle Sam.

The message from recent activity follows. If you are going to fail, make it an epic failure and then you will get some $s from the fed government (AIG). Don't let it be a mere medium-size, small or isolated failure (Lehman). Also, you do not want to be the first to fail - borrow some money or get extra liquidity before you need it. Eventually help will come, but it may not be for a while and the first to need it may perish or be punished.

It is not uncommon for historically reliable "signals" to be inaccurate or unreliable. Do your own homework. Don't let your thinking be prejudiced by others.


Not me. I didn't vote for

Not me. I didn't vote for Bush.





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