Foregoing Valuable Options

The conduct of AIG in the wake of the government's loans to keep it afloat suggests a real problem with its bailout.  At least with the bailout of banks, there is a presumption that "cash for trash" or preferred equity investments make funds available to allow them to do new lending and contribute to economic activity.  There doesn't seem to be any presumption of this happening with AIG.  In this Washington Post article, "AIG Has Used Much of Its $123 Billion Bailout Loan," we learn:

AIG has borrowed $90.3 billion from the Federal Reserve's credit line as of yesterday, the bulk of it to pay off bad bets the company made in guaranteeing other firms' risky mortgage investments. That's up from roughly $83 billion AIG had borrowed a week ago, and the $68 billion level it reached a week before that. The news comes as the company's new chief executive warned Wednesday that the government's financial lifeline may not be enough to keep AIG afloat.

What is the new economic activity we are supposed to get from these loans and ownership of AIG?  What good thing will AIG now do in the real economy because these loans have occurred?  Nothing.  This part of AIG isn't going to go out there and start making money in the derivative markets again.  It's just going to pack up and disappear after the rest of the company's subsidiaries have been sold.

These loans circumvent a bankruptcy process that would otherwise have to occur and that would occur without direct taxpayer financing.  Equity is wiped out, creditors take over the firm, and assets are sold to pay off as much of their claims as possible.  Some of those creditors now get paid off with taxpayer money.  Why do this?  AIG wasn't insured by the FDIC or any similar government entity.

Of course, we get the usual boilerplate answer in the next paragraph:

AIG began reporting unusual multimillion-dollar losses this spring as a result of its heavy exposure to risky mortgages, and the U.S. Treasury decided that its failure would probably bring down several other major investment firms and banks whose fortunes were tied to AIG.

This means that several major investment firms and banks would be among the group of creditors taking possession of AIG.  And some of those entities are FDIC insured or have some potential to contribute tot he real economy.  Doesn't that mean that we have to protect their balance sheets?

No, it doesn't.  The major investment firms are not FDIC insured.  They and their shareholders suffer for their investments gone bad, just as they would profit had the investments gone well.  What of the banks that are FDIC insured?  Some will be strong enough to withstand AIG's bankruptcy.  Their shareholders should take the hit.  Some will not be strong enough.  Their shareholders will lose all of their investment and the depositors will make claims against the FDIC.  Fair enough -- better to use the government money to directly compensate those who had government insurance than to prop up those who did not.

We have the option to deny absorbing AIG's debts and do it through the FDIC as needed by AIG's creditors.  There are many places in AIG's balance sheet where that funding gets siphoned off to non-insured entities.  That means taxpayers are contributing more than they are obliged to, because the government decided to forego the valuable option to contribute its funding later, rather than sooner.

The reduction in the balance sheet assets (or bankruptcy) of investment firms and other banks will cause there to be less financing for real economic activity. But as with AIG, if the government is going to commit funds, it would get a better return if it did so in banks that were not encumbered by sour investments made in the past.  That's another valuable option foregone by letting its money get channeled on the basis of "who had the biggest relationship with AIG" rather than "who has the most to contribute to the economy going forward."

Goldman Sachs

As the monolines went down, a lot of Wall Street’s banks saw their negative basis trades unwind.

With - it should be noted - the exception of one big player: Goldman Sachs. In an article in the NYTimes last week, it was stated that Goldman had hedges on around $20bn of securities with AIG:

Although it was not widely known, Goldman, a Wall Street stalwart that had seemed immune to its rivals’ woes, was A.I.G.’s largest trading partner, according to six people close to the insurer who requested anonymity because of confidentiality agreements.

So the US decision to bailout AIG might have saved Europe’s banks - but it had a much more direct aim of saving Goldman too.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/10/01/16559/aig-and-an-overlevered-...

If Goldman had gone down the financial system as we know it would have ceased to exist. I think a lot of people will say it is who you know especially with Butch Paulson & Sundance Bernanke running the show, but I think the govt needs to do what ever it can to prevent this volatile deleveraging from transforming into a global armageddon.

Finance is broke

Good points. How do we deliver money to those businesses that need it without having that money siphoned off to cover the bad bets made by the financial system?

Our current money distribution system is broken. It is broken because the agents owe huge debts that cannot be paid off in the short term. Recapitalization through the old broken network has the danger that the cash will be used to pay off past obligations rather than meet current liquidity needs and investments going forward.

There is no alternate network capable of managing the money.

This is why it is so important to quickly get the losses on the books and eliminate the institutions that cannot recover. Otherwise, too much of the recapitalization will be siphoned off. Those investments that are most critical to new growth and leading the way out of recession need to be prioritized.

How to do that is the $8 Trillion question.

Worse before it gets better

I agree with bakho. Infusions will be used to continue deleveraging first. But if this can be done (relatively) quickly then the banks can move on to investments in new growth.

So, the government leverages to hasten the end of the bank deleveraging downward spiral.

This must be done quickly and with transparency so that confidence is restored.

The uptick rule must be reinstated in the stock markets. Until this happens the downward moves are exacerbated (on low volume). Money will stay on the sidelines, because without uptick rule it is much harder to get conviction moves up.

This trader describes what is happening now, and we'll likely see further degradation in the next weeks -- severe downside movement that we wouldn't have if SEC had not taken away uptick test in 2007.

http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/3FF10494-5D10-4C43-BE2F-0DD7F0A0BCAF

Where are the ties that bind.....?

Where does the FDIC put it's monies into for gain so they can further the banking industrie's protection?
Oh yeah, into investment banks and agencies like AIG and the lot.
It's no wonder there are less oversights placed on these institutions. The US Government is INTO AIG approximately 82%, so, in effect, it is the majority 'stock' holder. Now, with the bailout, even more.
Unfortunate contractural issues in place prior to the collapse of the economy will take the biggest chunk of the monies or these institutions will be subject to even costlier lawsuits.
I believe a greater and stronger recovery would occur if hard work was once again the driving force behind everyone. Let lending institutions earn a bit LESS money and learn how to utilize it wisely and NOT flagrantly on office parties and non-essential garbage. Let those who have squandered what they had been given at the begining, go ahead and fail. Hopefully this will give rise to a more conservative ideal foe future banking habits....