Meanwhile, Back in the Real Economy

The news is not good.  A double dose, in fact.  First up, weekly unemployment claims:

In the week ending Sept. 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 493,000, an increase of 32,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 461,000. It is estimated that the effects of Hurricane Gustav in Louisiana and the effects of Hurricane Ike in Texas added approximately 50,000 claims to the total. The 4-week moving average was 462,500, an increase of 16,000 from the previous week's revised average of 446,500.

Even the 443,000 without the impacts of the hurricanes is a sign of a very weak labor market.  As I've noted before, over the past 20 years, claims haven't gotten this high without going higher. 

Next up, Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in August decreased $9.9 billion or 4.5 percent to $208.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This was the largest percent decrease in new orders since January 2008 and followed three consecutive monthly increases including a 0.8 percent July increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 3.0 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 5.0 percent.

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in August, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $7.7 billion or 3.5 percent to $210.1 billion. This was the largest percent decrease in shipments since December 2002 and followed a 2.3 percent July increase.

This is the advance report -- we'll get preliminary data late next week.  But from what we can see today, the demands for both labor and manufactured goods (capital inputs to production) are weakening.

What is happening to the middle class

Minnesotans begin to tell their stories. Yes, they are angry.

http://www.mn2020.org/index.asp?type=GUESTBOOK&SEC={3C10D55C-11BD-42E6-AFE9-E0A44FDD0CF6}&CurrentPage=1

This began with the death of manufacturing . . . pushing papers around and printing money doesn't create real wealth for an economy.

Finance must shrink

Big finance is itself a bubble. Too many players taking too much of our economy to be sustainable. They must shrink. One of the better explanations of our current crisis and the end game:

Here is Rogoff:
`The worst is yet to come in the U.S.,'' Rogoff, a Harvard University professor of economics, said in an interview in Singapore today. ``The financial sector needs to shrink; I don't think simply having a couple of medium-sized banks and a couple of small banks going under is going to do the job.''...

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae ``should have been closed down 10 years ago,'' he said. ``They need to be nationalized, the equity holders should lose all their money. Probably we need to guarantee the bonds, simply because the U.S. has led everyone into believing they would guarantee the bonds.''

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/08/kenneth-rogoff-worst-is-yet-to-co...