The Fixed Investment Picture
That we are not in a recession, based on weak GDP growth and a host of other macroeconomic indicators that have been flat since last summer, is quite remarkable. Here's the path of quarterly investment as a share of GDP:
Note that the fall in residential investment has been just as large and even steeper than the decline in equipment and software investment that was the driver of the last recession. Equipment and software investment fell to and has hovered around the share of GDP that it was in 1993. Residential investment has fallen to that level. It's not clear when the fall will stop.
recession or not
the problem is most of investors think that now is recession, although the data says the opposite.
Recession?
Don't you think there is a good chance that the last two quarters will be revised downward?
I think it would be more clear to say that the data leans against us being in a recession.