Andrew Samwick's blog

Unemployment Rates for Women

The top line numbers in today's Employment Situation news release from the BLS showed net job losses in the establishment survey (-62,000), making for a total of 438,000 net jobs (0.32%) lost since the December peak, and the unemployment rate holding steady at 5.5 percent.

With more bad news, we are likely to hear news reports about the unequal burden of the labor market contraction.  I was curious in particular to see how female heads of household were faring.  The BLS reports their unemployment rate on a seasonally unadjusted basis, so the following chart shows 40 years of annual data, measured in June of each year, for all persons (in the civilian noninstitutionalized population) 16 and over, all women 16 and over, and all female heads of household:

A few features of the chart stand out: 

Who Says You Can't Get Rich "Blogging?"

The New York Times and other media outlets reported today that Rush Limbaugh has signed a contract extension through 2016 worth about $400 million.  Perhaps with an eye toward higher marginal tax rates in the years to come, about $100 million is in the form of a signing bonus.

I think Rush Limbaugh could lay claim to being the original blogger.  The core of his 3-hour weekday show is Limbaugh's commentary on and parody of what newsmakers have said.  Roll an audio clip.  Criticize or find an inconsistency in the speaker's argument.  Lampoon the speaker in the process.  Reaffirm ideological views.  Roll another clip.  He makes no apologies for his conservative ideology and his partisan edge.  You find a lot of this in the blogosphere, except that Limbaugh constructs and distributes his work as audio rather than as text. 

Consider this quote from this Sunday's New York Times Magazine cover story by Zev Chafets.

Gasoline Is Not a Public Good

Stan asks an interesting question:

If consumers are willing to pay higher prices for gasoline, why should we think that energy companies are going to do anything but charge those higher prices?

We should not think anything but that, except that we should acknowledge that producers of any good might be willing to trade off some short term profits for greater profits over the longer term.  With gasoline, we are certainly not in that environment, whether or not we ever were.  (Were low energy prices of past decades "teaser" rates?  Did we get discounts on our first "hits" of petroleum?)

He then asks two other questions that come up in various guises when dealing with economic policy:

In other words, in what's supposed to be a market-driven economy, aren't we complaining about the market working?

[...]

Finally, are we starting to think of gasoline as a public good that the government should provide?

How Long Should This Take?

I was wondering over the past few days, particularly with the recent media attention devoted to General Wesley Clark's appearance on Face the Nation and its several day aftermath in the news media, how long it should take people to make up their minds about how to cast their ballots in an election like this year's primaries or general election.  The relevance Clark's interview is that I think it is a good example of a political celebrity saying something that is not well considered (to put it charitably), easy to sensationalize in an excerpt, and of almost no consequence in helping voters decide which candidate to support.

Sense and Nonsense on the Decline of Manufacturing

The Washington Post ran an op-ed yesterday with the title, "5 Myths About the Death Of the American Factory," by Gilbert Kaplan, an international trade lawyer.  He opens with a bad premise:

Sure, U.S. banking is in trouble, but the longer-term and possibly more damaging threat to the nation's prosperity is the decline of the manufacturing sector.

SAFE Is Out in its First At-Bat

As noted by a commenter on Stan's post, the SAFE Commission struck out as an amendment in committee to a financial services appropriations bill.  Here's how CongressDaily reported it.  Stan was certainly on the money, when he anticipated a reaction that the Congress would not want to outsource its duties (presumably to contine the status quo in which they are simply not being done by anyone):

House Appropriations Chairman David Obey blasted the idea because the commission would be able to force appropriators to implement a solution that they would have no hand in creating and might not be workable.

Legislating from the Bench

Between now and the November elections, we will likely hear Senator McCain describe his preferences for Supreme Court nominees who will not "legislate from the bench."  I think the liberal wing of the court--including Justice Kennedy writing for the 5-4 majority--gave him a clear example of legislating from the bench in today's Kennedy v. Louisiana decision.  From The New York Times:

WASHINGTON — The death penalty is unconstitutional as a punishment for the rape of a child, a sharply divided Supreme Court ruled Wednesday.

A Dollar Is a Dollar, and a Commission Is a Commission

Pete is right to say that deficit hawks should unite, but I don't know if the SAFE Act is enough.  It calls for a commission to address:

  1. the unsustainable imbalance between long-term federal spending commitments and projected revenues;
  2. increases in net national savings to provide for domestic investment and economic growth;
  3. the implications of foreign ownership of federally issued debt instruments; and
  4. revision of the budget process to place greater emphasis on long-term fiscal issues.

I agree that within a generation, the cost of our long-term entitlement programs will push our fiscal situation into very dire straits.  Our long-term problems will have become short-term problems because we let our current window of opportunity to resolve them close.  But the language in the bill does not mention, and the SAFE Commission would only tangentially have anything to say about, the fact that we cannot bring ourselves to balance the on-budget (or non-OASDHI) deficit to zero.  And until we do that, or unless the SAFE Commission is explicitly empowered to address that in addition to the long-term entitlements, I think that meaningful reform of long-term entitlements is dead in the water politically.

Gene Steuerle on "An Issue of Democracy"

Gene Steuerle holds forth on the very undemocratic impact of our generation's promises to ourselves on the tax burden of the next:

At its core, democracy is about equal rights to vote—and have your representatives vote—on the nation's current priorities. But many recent laws attempt to deny us—and, even more so, our children—the opportunity to determine those priorities.

The reason is simple, but its effects are profound. Never before in U.S. history have so many promises been made to so many people for so many years into the future. Every additional promise, no matter what its merit, only attempts to tie that fiscal straightjacket tighter around future voters.

If our tax laws merely stay the same from 2006 to 2010, for instance, government revenues would rise by several hundred billion dollars. But guess what? Most of those revenue increases are already committed, mainly to the growing costs of our current health and retirement programs.

Airline Emissions in Europe

It seems like I'm not the only one talking about carbon emissions from air travel.  The New York Times reports today on the challenges of reducing emissions from low-cost airlines even as fuel prices rise.

The growth in emissions from air travel had “far exceeded growth by any other mode,” a European Environment Agency report issued this year said. Between 1990 and 2005, the last full year from which data were available, total carbon dioxide emissions from aviation in the European Union grew by 73 percent.

“This could threaten the ability of the E.U. to meet increasingly ambitious emission reduction targets,” the report’s authors said.

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