It is probably getting very ugly behind the scenes.

Given how big of a problem Senator Larry Craig's (R-ID) performance over the past few days is for the GOP, it's hard not to imagine that the party's senior political operatives have not already let him know what will happen if he doesn't actually leave. My guess is that he's alreday been told by several people that (1) he'll have a strong primary challenge for the 2008 election, (2) he'll get no financial support from Republican Party organizations and big-name fundraisers, and (3) his challenger for the nomination will get more funds than she or he could possibly need.

Just as important, Craig's GOP colleagues have likely let him know in a variety of ways that his life in the Senate will be no fun if he decides to stay after all.

This Just In: Altough he was careful not to say that he sanctioned the effort, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has now confirmed that Craig may not resign afterall. None of the GOP political experts I spoke with immeidately after McConnell's statement could provide anything close to an explanation for what's going on; most expressed extreme dismay about the latest developments.

The two biggest problems for the GOP now are that the Craig story will continue to be in the news over the next month and that the Republican who would have been named to replace him by Idaho's Repubican governor will have that much less time to make herself or himself known.

Meanwhile, Craig, who will now be judged less by his arrest and guilty plea and more by his bizarre behavior since it became known, will continue to be investigated by reporters and others.

As I said, it could get very ugly.